UNH Demographer Finds U.S. Population Growing Slower But Increasingly More Diverse

Thursday, June 25, 2015

DURHAM, N.H. - Minority births far exceeded deaths while more whites died than were born for the third consecutive year, according to analysis of new population estimates released today by the Census Bureau from the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire. Minority populations produced nearly 95 percent of the U.S. population increase (2,360,000) between 2013 and 2014.

"Natural increase (births and deaths) is the major force behind the growing diversity of the U.S. population, though immigration remains important," said Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer in the Carsey School and a professor of sociology. "Although the pace of the U.S. population growth is slowing because of the lingering impact of the Great Recession and the aging of the population, the U.S. continues to become more diverse."

In each of the last three years more non-Hispanic whites dies than were born, a natural decrease that is without precedent in U.S. history. The non-Hispanic white populations did increase slightly each year, but only because of immigration.

There are many more births than deaths among minorities because the minority population (with the exception of Asians) is on average more than 10 years younger than the non-Hispanic white populations. Between 2013 and 2014, 63 percent of the minority population increase came from natural increase. The growth of the minority population combined with the stagnation of the non-Hispanic white population continues to increase the diversity of the population. Census projections suggest that by 2045 no group will constitute a majority of the U.S. population.

The full analysis can be found here: https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/diversity-growing-because-births-far-exceed-deaths

The Carsey School of Public Policy conducts research, leadership development, and engaged scholarship relevant to public policy. They address pressing challenges, striving for innovative, responsive, and equitable solutions at all levels of government and in the for-profit and nonprofit sectors.

The University of New Hampshire, founded in 1866, is a world-class public research university with the feel of a New England liberal arts college. A land, sea, and space-grant university, UNH is the state's flagship public institution, enrolling 13,000 undergraduate and 2,300 graduate students.