DURHAM, N.H. - Review of new population projections released today by the Census Bureau finds that the pace of population growth in the U.S. is slowing while the population continues to become more diverse, according to analysis from the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire.

"Growth is slowing because the non-Hispanic white population is aging, which reduces fertility and increases mortality," said Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer in the Carsey School and a professor of sociology. "In each of the last two years more non-Hispanic whites died than were born. Such natural decrease is without precedent in U.S. history and was not expected until the 2020s when deaths among Baby Boomers were projected to exceed births to the diminishing numbers of child-bearing age. The sharp decline in fertility associated with the Great Recession has accelerated this trend. With no natural increase and modest immigration, the non-Hispanic white population has grown by just 516,000 (.3%) since 2010."

Minority populations already account for most of the nation's population increase and the new projections suggest this will continue, according to Johnson. Since 2010, nearly 93% of the U.S. population gain of 7.4 million came from minorities. Hispanics fueled nearly half of this gain. The new projections indicate that by 2030, minority populations will account for all U.S. population increase and offset population declines among non-Hispanic whites.

"The projected growth of the minority population combined with stagnation and eventual non-Hispanic white population decline will continue to increase the diversity of the population," Johnson said. "Minorities currently represent 37% of the U.S. population. By 2045, no group will constitute a majority of the U.S. population and non-Hispanic whites are projected to represent just 44% of the population in 2060."

The Carsey School brief about this research is available at http://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1231&context=carsey.

The Carsey School of Public Policy conducts policy research on vulnerable children, youth, and families and on sustainable community development, giving policy makers and practitioners timely, independent resources to effect change in their communities.
The University of New Hampshire, founded in 1866, is a world-class public research university with the feel of a New England liberal arts college. A land, sea, and space-grant university, UNH is the state's flagship public institution, enrolling 12,200 undergraduate and 2,300 graduate students.

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