DURHAM, NH – New Hampshire’s U.S. Representatives Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass are unpopular in their districts while New Hampshire adults continue to have favorable opinions of Senators Ayotte and Shaheen, according to the latest WMUR Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Five hundred sixteen (516) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between June 21 and July 1, 2011. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.3 percent. Included was a subsample of 248 adults in the NH First Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/- 6.2 percent), and a subsample of 263 Second Congressional District adults (margin of sampling error +/-6.0 percent).

First Congressional District residents are beginning to sour on Republican Congressman Frank Guinta. Currently, only 24 percent of First District adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, 30 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, 12 percent are neutral, and 34 percent don’t know enough about him to say.

Guinta’s net favorability rating, the percentage that have a favorable opinion of him minus those that have an unfavorable opinion, is currently a quite low -6 percent, down from +5 percent in February. Guinta’s favorability ratings have dropped across the political spectrum since April. Among Republicans, his net favorability rating has fallen to +28 percent from +50 percent in April and among Independents, it has fallen to -9 percent from 4 percent in April. Guinta’s net favorability rating has remained low, but stable among Democrats. Currently it is -39 percent, largely unchanged from -41 percent in April.

Second Congressional District Republican Charlie Bass remains unpopular in his district. Currently, only 28 percent of Second Congressional District residents have a favorable opinion of Bass, 39 percent have an unfavorable of him, 12 percent are neutral, and 21 percent don’t know enough about him to say.

Bass’ net favorability rating is -11 percent, up slightly from -16 percent in April but down significantly from +13 percent in February. His net favorability rating among Republicans have rebounded since April – it currently stands at +33 percent, up from +16 percent in April. Bass is viewed very unfavorably by independents (-29 percent) and by Democrats (-43 percent).

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s popularity has stayed largely unchanged in the past two years. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52 percent of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Shaheen, 33 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, 7 percent are neutral and 8 percent don’t know enough about her to say.

Shaheen’s net favorability rating is +19 percent, up from somewhat from +12 percent in April. Although her overall favorability ratings have remained stable, Shaheen has become slightly less popular among Democrats, where her net favorability ratings have dropped from +74 percent in April to +65 percent. However, she has become more popular among independents (+18% from -3 percent in April) and Republicans (–26 percent, from -48 percent in April).

Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte’s favorability ratings have continued to slide somewhat since her election. Currently, 45 percent of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, 25 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, 12 percent are neutral and 18 percent don’t know enough about her to say.

Ayotte’s net favorability rating is +20 percent, down from +24 percent in April and +31 percent in February. Her net favorability rating has declined among Republicans from +73 percent in April to +57 percent in the current poll, but has improved among independents (+33 percent from +16 percent in April). Her net favorability rating among Democrats is unchanged, -21 percent from -18 percent in April.

For complete tabular results, visit http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2011_summer_congapp071111.pdf.

The UNH Survey Center has conducted survey research projects at the University of New Hampshire since 1976. The center has grown rapidly during the past 30 years and now conducts approximately 40 to 50 major survey projects each year.

The University of New Hampshire, founded in 1866, is a world-class public research university with the feel of a New England liberal arts college. A land, sea, and space-grant university, UNH is the state's flagship public institution, enrolling 12,200 undergraduate and 2,300 graduate students.

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Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center.
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